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November is Top
Nasdaq Month in Midterm Years

November maintains its status among the top performing months as fourth-quarter cash inflows from institutions drive November to lead the best consecutive three-month span November-January.

However, the month has taken hits during bear markets and November 2000, down -22.9% (undecided election and a nascent bear), was Nasdaq’s second worst month on record – only October 1987 was worse, notes Jeff Hirsch, editor, Stock Trader’s Almanac and Almanac Investor eNewsletter.

November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months for Nasdaq. Small Caps come into favor during November, but don’t really take off until the last two weeks of the year. November is the number-two DJIA, S&P 500 (since 1950), and Nasdaq (since 1971) month.

November is best for Russell 1000 (since 1979) and Russell 2000 (since 1979). Average performance in all year ranges from 1.7% from DJIA and S&P 500 to a solid 2.3% by Russell 2000.

In midterm years, November’s market prowess is relatively unchanged. DJIA has advanced in 14 of the last 18 midterm years since 1950 with an average gain of 2.5%. S&P 500 has also been up 14 of the past 18 midterm years, gaining on average 2.6%. Small Caps perform well with Russell 2000 climbing in 7 of the past 10 midterm years, averaging 3.3%. The only real blemish in the November midterm-year record is 1974 (DJIA -7.0%, the final DJIA bear market bottom was in December).

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