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Mid-Pack Performance
for Post-Election Year Octobers

October often evokes fear on Wall Street as memories are stirred of crashes in 1929, 1987, the 554-drop on October 27, 1997, back-to-back massacres in 1978 and 1979, Friday the 13th in 1989 and the 733-point drop on October 15, 2008, notes Jeff Hirsch, editor, Stock Trader’s Almanac and Almanac Investor newsletter.

During the week ending October 10, 2008, Dow lost 1,874.19 points (18.2%), the worst weekly decline in our database going back to 1901, in percentage terms. March 2020 now holds the dubious honor of producing the worst, second and third worst DJIA weekly point declines. The term “Octoberphobia” has been used to describe the phenomenon of major market drops occurring during the month. Market calamities can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, so stay on the lookout and don’t get whipsawed if it happens.

Post-election year October’s are neither great nor bad since 1953, ranking mid-pack across DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 1000 with gains averaging from 0.9% (DJIA & Russell 1000) to 1.4% (Nasdaq). DJIA has the best historical odds for gains having advanced in 12 of the last 17 post-election year Octobers. Despite the best average gain, Nasdaq actually has the worst record, declining in 6 of the last 12 post-election year Octobers. A 12.8% gain in 2001 boosts its average. Should a meaningful decline materialize in October it is likely to be an excellent buying opportunity, especially for any depressed technology and small-cap shares.

Editor’s Note: Sign up today for a FREE 7-Day Trial to Almanac Investor to get a full run down of seasonal tendencies that occur throughout each month of the year in a easy-to-read calendar graphic with important economic release dates highlighted, Daily Market Probability Index bullish and bearish days, market trends around options expiration and holidays. In addition, the Monthly Vital Statistics Table combines stats for the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 and puts them all in a single location available at the click of a mouse. For FREE 7-Day Trial to Almanac Investor Click Here.

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