February Almanac:
Worst S&P 500 Month of Post-Election Years

Even though February is right in the middle of the Best Six Months, its long-term track record, since 1950, is rather tepid. February ranks no better than sixth and has posted meager average gains except for the Russell 2000. Small cap stocks, benefiting from “January Effect” carry over; tend to outpace large cap stocks in February. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stock turns in an average gain of 1.0% in February since 1979 – just the sixth best month for that benchmark, notes Jeff Hirsch, editor, Stock Trader’s Almanac and Almanac Investor newsletter.

February’s post-election year performance since 1950 is miserable. Ranking dead last for S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000. Average losses have been sizable: -1.5%, -3.3% and -1.6% respectively. February ranks tenth for DJIA in post-election years with an average loss of 1.1%. February 2001 and 2009 were exceptionally brutal. Nasdaq dropped 22.4% in February 2001, its third worst monthly loss ever.

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