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November Almanac:
Usually A Top Month in Election Years

November maintains its status among the top performing months as fourth-quarter cash inflows from institutions drive November to lead the best consecutive three-month span November-January, notes Jeff Hirsch, editor, Almanac Investor.

However, the month has taken hits during bear markets and November 2000, down – 22.9% (undecided election and a nascent bear), was Nasdaq’s second worst month on record – only October 1987 was worse.

November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for Nasdaq. Small caps come into favor during November, but don’t really take off until the last two weeks of the year. November is the number-two DJIA (since 1950). Nasdaq (since 1971) and Russell 2000 (since 1979) month. November is best for S&P 500 (since 1950) and Russell 1000 (since 1979).

November is a mixed bag in presidential years. DJIA has advanced in 10 of the last 17 election years since 1952 with an average gain of 1.7%. Significant DJIA declines occurred in 2008 (-5.3%) and 2000 (-5.1%). For S&P 500 November ranks best with a similar record to DJIA. Nasdaq, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 are not as strong ranking #7, #3 and #6 respectively. Fewer years of data (12 for Nasdaq and 10 for Russell indices) combined with sizable losses in 2000 and 2008 drag down rankings and average gains when compared to DJIA and S&P 500.

Editor’s Note: Sign up today for a FREE 7-Day Trial to Almanac Investor to get the latest market analysis and trading recommendations. Get a full run down of seasonal tendencies that occur throughout each month of the year in an easy-to-read calendar graphic with important economic release dates highlighted, Daily Market Probability Index bullish and bearish days, market trends around options expiration and holidays. In addition, the Monthly Vital Statistics Table combines stats for the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 and puts them all in a single location available at the click of a mouse.

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